The haze risk in Malaysia could stretch until May 2027, two months longer than earlier forecast, as a super El Nino is expected to make next year’s dry season longer and harsher, a senior official at the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) has said.
The senior deputy director of MetMalaysia’s National Weather and Earthquake Operations Centre said the department had earlier expected the risk to last until around March, but updated data showed the dry conditions could persist until May.
He said the super El Nino was expected to reach a strong level this month and would affect rainfall during the northeast monsoon. The monsoon’s wet phase is expected to last until early January, after which the dry phase could become more extreme as less moisture reaches the region.
Whether haze actually occurs will depend on the weather at the time and on what triggers fires, such as open burning, he said. Peatland is a particular concern, as peat soil dries out quickly in a long dry spell, making it easier for fires to start and spread. If there is not enough rain from February to May, the risk of fires and haze would rise further.
During the super El Nino episodes of 1997-98 and 2015-16, rainfall fell by up to 30% in Peninsular Malaysia and by up to 45% in Sabah. He said heatwaves could hit Perlis, Kedah, Perak and Penang, while a long shortage of rain could strain water supplies for households, industry and farms and lower dam levels, especially in east coast states that rely on monsoon rain.
MetMalaysia expects three to five episodes of heavy rain during the current monsoon, compared with up to eight in a normal season. However, people in flood-prone areas, including the east coast of the peninsula, Sarawak and eastern Sabah, should stay alert as heavy rain can still occur, he said.
On Sunday (Nov 15), MetMalaysia issued a continuous rain warning for seven districts in Terengganu, namely Kemaman, Dungun, Marang, Kuala Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Setiu and Besut, until Tuesday (Nov 17). It also warned of thunderstorms, heavy rain and strong winds in parts of nine states until 8pm on Sunday. Terengganu and Kelantan were placed under a severe rain warning earlier this month.
MetMalaysia said it was coordinating with national, state and district disaster management agencies to make sure its forecasts and warnings reach technical agencies and rescue teams. At the ASEAN Summit in Manila on Sunday, Malaysia also proposed a regional haze fund to strengthen cooperation against transboundary haze.