The world is on track for 2026 to be the second-hottest year on record, as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern adds to human-driven global warming, the European Union’s climate monitor said on Friday.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its monthly bulletin that there was still a 20% chance of 2026 tying with or exceeding 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
It said global temperatures this year were now virtually certain to be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and that the average for the four years from 2023 to 2026 was also expected to exceed 1.5°C, the preferred limit set under the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Last month was the warmest October on record, with average global surface air temperatures 1.75°C above the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900. Copernicus said October continued a pattern of remarkable warmth, with record global and sea surface temperatures.
It said the exceptionally strong El Nino was adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activity.
The bulletin comes as countries prepare for the UN’s two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkey, which opens on Monday, after a year of deadly floods in Nepal, severe heatwaves in Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.